Author: Stephen Vermette | Department of Geography & Planning, SUNY Buffalo State University Research Associate, Buffalo Society of Natural Sciences
Reaching back to the late 19th and early 20th Centuries, Buffalo’s newspaper headlines (Buffalo Museum of Science Weather Archives) are replete with references to snowstorms and blizzards – “Big Blizzard to Swoop Down on Buffalo,” “It was a Blizzard That Buffalo Could Well Boast of,” “City in Grasp of Great Storm,” “Buffalo is Threatened with Howling Blizzard…” (I could go on).
In modern memory we have the Blizzards of ’77, ‘81, and ’85, the Christmas/New Year Storm of 2001-02, the October Surprise (2006), and Snowvember (2014). Again, I could go on. Just in the first few months of the 2022-23 winter season we’ve added November II and the Blizzard of ’22 to this notorious list of snowstorms.
It should come as no surprise that Buffalo has a well-established reputation for experiencing heavy doses of snow. A New York State contest, recognizing total seasonal snowfall, bestowed the City of Buffalo with the Golden Snowball Trophy for the winter of 2021-22 and, with a commanding lead to date, Buffalo may again receive the trophy for the winter season of 2022-23.
How Buffalo’s snow might fare with climate change – in a warming world – is a fair question. Will snow continue to be in our future? To answer this question, I offer here a climatological (long term) perspective base on climate trends since 1965. I’m using the year 1965 as an inflection point, as it is approximately 1965 when the countries air temperature clearly pulls away from background noise and correlates with the rise in greenhouse gases – climate change is not only something in our future, but it is occurring now. Looking at Buffalo’s temperature record, as well as water temperatures in Lake Erie, there is no question that they are warming with time, much like the U.S. Since 1965, both Buffalo’s average annual air temperature and Lake Erie’s annual water temperature have increased significantly, 2.8⁰F and 2.9⁰F, respectively – averaging +0.5⁰F per decade (Data obtained from the National Weather Service). At face value, such temperature increases do not bode well for the future of snow in Buffalo. So, how has snow data fared in our warming city?
An examination of snowfall in Buffalo (data taken form the National Weather Service Office at the Greater Niagara Buffalo International airport) since 1965 shows quite a bit of yearly variability (as it has been in the past), with an average snowfall of 94.7 inches (see Graph 1). However, there is not a statistically significant directional trend with the snowfall data over time (used a Whitney-Mann test, P < 0.05 to measure significance). In other words, it looks like Buffalo’s average snowfall since 1965 has neither decreased nor increased over time.
What of the number of days of snow cover (number of days with > 1 inch on the ground) in Buffalo? While the meteorological winter is defined as the months of December through February, Buffalo’s winter experience is typically five months (November through March) and sometimes winter weather arrives as early as October and extends into April.
Looking at snow cover days during both the traditional core winter months and Buffalo’s extended winter period, there is quite a bit of variability (much like the previous snowfall data). The average number of days of snow cover are 56.4 and 70.7 days, respectively. Another way of looking at this is to say that snow covers the ground on average for about 63% of the time during Buffalo’s core winter months and about 47% of the time over Buffalo’s extended winter period of November through March (see graph 2 and 3). Once again, there does not appear to be a statistically significant directional trend for the core or extended period – the days of snow cover does not appear to trend over time. In other words, since 1965 the number of snow cover days has neither decreased nor increased.
What of the number of days recording measurable (> 0.1 inch) snow in Buffalo? This is where we see change! As with the previous data there is quite a bit of yearly variability however, since 1965, there has been a statistically significant decrease in snow days (see graph 4 and 5). Over the 57 years since 1965, Buffalo has lost an average of 13 annual snowfall days (25.5%) during our core winter (December through February) and 21 days (30%) during Buffalo’s extended winter. So, living in Buffalo today means that you experience fewer snow days than Buffalonians from decades earlier.
What of Lake Effect Snow? To address this question, I looked at the number of Lake Effect Snow (LES) events in Western New York which exceeded the 7-inch warning threshold (considered substantial events. Data was obtained from the National Weather Service Snow Event Archive). Using data from 1994 to the present, it appears that WNY experiences an average of 6.5 LES events per year (see graph 6). Again, as with other measures of snow there is quite a bit of yearly variability. As with snowfall amounts and snow cover, there does not appear a statistically significant directional trend in the number of LES events – neither increasing nor decreasing over time.
With temperatures warming it appears that the response of snow can be found in a significant decrease in the number of snowfall days, while the amount of snowfall, the days of snow cover, and LES events appear unchanged since 1965. Given fewer snowfall days with unchanging snowfall totals means that more snow now falls during fewer snowfall days. Climate Change 101 tells us that a warming world also brings with it more weather extremes. So, while the air may be warming, one might expect frequent blasts of Arctic air and, in conjunction with warming lakes, the continued potential for LES events.
So, keep your snow shovels and snowblowers on hand, as there is snow in Buffalo’s future. At least for the foreseeable future.
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