(WHTM) – A new WHTM/Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll shows a virtual tie in the race to represent Pennsylvania in the United States Senate between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz.
In the poll of 1,000 likely Pennsylvania voters, Fetterman led Oz 44.6% to 42.6% with a +/-3% margin of error. Third-party candidates received 5% and 7.9% were undecided.
Nine percent of Republicans (twice as much compared to Democrats) said there were undecided. Independents leaned towards Oz at 45.5% and 11.8% were undecided.
Despite the race appearing to be tight, nearly 55% of voters surveyed said they expect Fetterman to win. Twenty-one percent of Republicans said they expect Fetterman to win, while 13% of Democrats expect Oz to win.
Oz led among Hispanic voters with 46%, while Fetterman received more than 65% support from African Americans.
More than half of those surveyed (58.5%) said Fetterman’s May stroke and hospitalization made no difference in their decision whether to vote for him. Twenty-seven percent said it made it less likely they’ll support him. Forty-seven percent of Republicans said the stroke made them less likely to vote for Fetterman.
Since the August Emerson Pennsylvania poll, the share of voters who say Fetterman’s stroke makes no difference on their vote has decreased by nine percentage points, 68% to 59%, and the share of voters who say it makes them less likely to support him has increased by five points to 19%.
Forty-seven percent of voters said Oz’s longtime New Jersey residency had no effect on their vote, and 38.5% said it makes it less likely they’ll support him. Nearly 60% of Democrats said Oz’s residency made it less likely they’ll support him.
Since the August Emerson Pennsylvania poll, the share of voters who say they are less likely to support Oz because of his residence decreased by 12 points from 51% to 39%.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “There is a gender divide in the race for US Senate: men break for Oz over Fetterman by six points, while women voters break for Fetterman by seven.”
Female voters supported Fetterman with 46% support vs Oz’s 39%. Nearly 10% of women are undecided in the Senate race.
Fetterman led among urban and suburban voters, while Oz had a significant lead (33%) among rural voters.
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Eighty-three percent of voters find it somewhat important (18%) or very important (65%) for the candidates running for either Governor or US Senate to participate in a debate prior to the November election. Seventeen percent find it not too important (11%) or not at all important (6%).
President Biden holds a 43% approval among Pennsylvania voters, while 51% disapprove of the job he is doing.
“Since last month, President Biden’s approval in Pennsylvania has increased by four points and his disapproval has dropped by six. This movement in favor of Democrats is not seen evenly in the race for US Senate and Governor, where Fetterman’s race is tightening and Shapiro’s lead is extending,” Kimball said.
In a hypothetical election between President Biden and former President Trump, Trump leads Biden among Pennsylvania voters 46% to 45%; 6% would support someone else and 3% are undecided. Concerning the recent FBI search of Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate makes them more or less likely to support Trump in 2024, 38% say it makes them more likely to support the former President, 33% say it makes them less likely to support Trump in 2024, and 29% say it makes no difference on their vote.
The economy is the most important issue for 39% of Pennsylvania voters, followed by threats to democracy (14%), and abortion access (13%).
Voters were asked if the forgiving of $10,000 of student loan debt for borrowers making under $125,000 make them more or less likely to vote in the 2022 elections. Forty-seven percent are either much more likely (40%) or somewhat more likely (7%) to vote, while 47% say it makes no difference on their vote.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling survey of Pennsylvania voters was conducted September 23-26, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely general election voters, n=1,000, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, party affiliation and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, web survey via email, an online panel, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.